Category Archives: For Sellers

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Why You Don’t Need To Be Afraid of Today’s Mortgage Rates

Buying Tips, Downsize, First-Time Buyers, For Buyers, For Sellers, Mortgage Rates, Move-Up, Real Estate, , , , ,

Why You Don’t Need To Be Afraid of Today’s Mortgage Rates Simplifying The Market

Mortgage rates have been the monster under the bed for a while. Every time they tick up, people flinch and say, “Maybe I’ll wait.” But here’s the twist. Waiting for that perfect 5-point-something rate could end up haunting your wallet later.

The Magic Number

According to the National Association of Realtors (NAR):

“. . . a 30-year fixed rate mortgage of 6% would make the median-priced home affordable for about 5.5 million more households—including 1.6 million renters. If rates were to hit that magic number, it’s likely that about 10%—or 550,000—of those additional households would buy a home over the next 12 or 18 months.”

When the market hits that mortgage rate sweet spot, as expert forecasters are starting to say is more likely in 2026, the psychological shift to lower rates will kick in for more of today’s hopeful buyers. That will unleash some pent-up demand that’s been waiting on the sidelines, and the increase in activity will cause prices to rise.

And while a 5.99% rate might sound like a big win, if you’re waiting for that number to make your move, it might not actually save you as much as you think. Here’s how the math looks when you run the numbers (see chart below):

a screenshot of a blue and white websiteOn a $400,000 mortgage, the difference between today’s rate (around 6.2%) and 5.99% is roughly $50 a month. That’s less than many people spend on weekly coffee runs or occasional DoorDash orders. And as prices tick up with more buyers in the market, that could quickly negate any of your potential savings.

So, if you’re waiting for 5.99%, that difference might not be worth missing out on today’s opportunities, like having more homes to choose from, better negotiation leverage with today’s sellers, and fewer buyers out there looking for the same houses.

Because the reality is, those benefits start to slip away when more buyers begin to make their moves – and a rate under 6% is exactly they’re waiting for.

Why Acting Now Makes Sense

Jessica Lautz, Deputy Chief Economist and VP of Research at NAR, says:

“Over the last 5 weeks, mortgage rates have averaged 6.31%. This has provided savvy buyers a sweet spot to reexamine the home search process with more inventory, widening their choices.”

And like Matt Vernon, Head of Retail Lending at Bank of America, notes:

“Rather than waiting it out for a rate that they like better, hopeful homebuyers should assess their personal financial situation—if the house is right for them, and the upfront and monthly payments are affordable, it could be the right chance to make a move.”

Bottom Line

If moving at today’s rate scares you, remember, waiting doesn’t always pay off. Once rates dip below 6%, as some experts project they’ll do next year, more buyers (and higher prices) will be back.

So, don’t be afraid of today’s mortgage rates. Because if you’re ready, this might just be your chance to make a move before the market wakes up again.

Why Some Homes Sell Quickly – and Others Don’t Sell at All

Agent Value, For Sellers, Inventory, Real Estate, Selling Tips, , , , ,

Why Some Homes Sell Quickly – and Others Don’t Sell at All Simplifying The Market

A few years ago, inventory hit a record low. Just about anything sold – and fast. But now, there are far more homes on the market. Listings are up almost 20% from this time last year. And in some areas, supply is even back to levels we last saw in 2017–2019. For sellers, that means one thing:

Your house needs to stand out and grab attention from day one.

That’s especially true when you consider why the number of homes for sale is up. Here’s how it works. Available inventory is a mix of: 

  • Active Listings: homes that have been sitting on the market, but haven’t sold yet
  • New Listings: homes that were just put on the market

Data from Realtor.com shows most of the inventory growth lately is actually from active listings that are staying on the market and taking longer to sell (see the graph below).

The blue bars show active listings. These are the homes that are sitting month to month and not selling. The green bars are new listings, the homes that were just put on the market. And it’s clear there are fewer new listings compared to how many are staying on the market unsold.

a graph of sales growthSince you don’t want your house to be one of the ones that take a long time to sell, let’s break down where things can go sideways and how to set yourself up to sell quickly.

Why Some Homes Sell and Others Sit

The secret to selling in today’s market is simple. Make sure your house is easy for buyers to say yes to as soon as it is listed. 

Price it based on current conditions (not what your neighbor sold for 3 years ago). Make important repairs. And highlight the best things about your house. If you do that, it will sell in any market – sometimes even faster than you’d think. Because the truth is, homes that are priced right today are still selling. 

It’s the homeowners who are clinging to outdated expectations that are seeing their house sit and their listing go stale. According to Redfin and HousingWire, here are some of the most common reasons sales stall out:

  • Priced it too high from the start
  • Skipped necessary repairs before listing
  • Didn’t stage the house well
  • Sellers won’t negotiate with buyers
  • Limited availability for showings
  • Ineffective marketing or listing pictures

Most of those things didn’t matter as much just a few years ago. When inventory was at a record low, sellers could skip the prep, name their price, and still walk away with multiple offers over their asking price.

But today’s market is different now that inventory has grown. And that means your approach needs to be different too.

You don’t want to try out old strategies and aim too high just to see what sticks. Your first few weeks on the market are everything. That’s when your listing gets the most attention – and when pricing or presentation mistakes hurt the most. Get it wrong up front and your house will sit…and sit. Get it right, and it’ll be snatched up before you know it.

The Right Agent Helps Your House Stand Out

Selling quickly isn’t about luck. It’s about knowing how to play to the market you’re in. And that’s where your agent comes in.

A great agent will analyze your local market, suggest a price based on the latest comparables sold in your neighborhood, and create a marketing plan that makes buyers pay attention from day one. They’ll also walk you through any repairs you need to make or whether you need to bring in a staging company. As the National Association of Realtors (NAR) explains:

“Home sellers without an agent are nearly twice as likely to say they didn’t accept an offer for at least three months; 53% of sellers who used an agent say they accepted an offer within a month of listing their home.”

That’s the power of getting it right (and getting expert help) from the start.

Bottom Line

There are more homes for sale today, but that doesn’t have to work against you.

When your house is priced right, shows well, and is marketed effectively, it will sell. Connect with an agent if you want to know how to make that happen in your market this fall.

Planning To Sell in 2026? Start the Prep Now

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Planning To Sell in 2026? Start the Prep Now Simplifying The Market

You’ve got big plans for 2026. But what you do this year could be the difference between a smooth sale and a stressful one. If you’re thinking of selling next spring (the busiest season in real estate), the smartest move you can make is to start prepping now. As Realtor.com says:

“If you’re aiming to sell in 2026, now is the time to start preparing, especially if you want to maximize the spring market’s higher buyer activity.” 

Because the reality is, from small repairs to touch-ups and decluttering, the earlier you start, the easier it’ll be when you’re ready to list. And, the better your house will look when it’s time for it to hit the market.

Why Starting Now Matters

Talk to any good agent and they’ll tell you that you can’t afford to skip repairs in today’s market. There are more homes for sale right now than there have been in years. And since buyers have more to choose from, your house is going to need to look its best to stand out and get the attention it deserves.

Now, that doesn’t mean you have to do a full-on renovation. But it does mean you’ll want to tackle some projects before you sell. Your house will sell if it’s prepped right. And you don’t want to be left scrambling in the spring to get the work done.

Because here’s the advantage you have now. If you start this year, you’ll be able to space those upgrades and fixes out however you want to. More time. Less stress. No sense of being rushed or racing the clock.

Whether it’s fixing that leaky faucet, repainting your front door, or finally replacing your roof, you can do it right if you start now. And you have the time to find great contractors without blowing your budget or paying extra for rushed jobs.

Get an Agent’s Advice Early

To figure out what’s worth doing and what’s not in your market, you need to talk to a local agent early. That way you’re not wasting your time or money on something that won’t help your bottom line. As Realtor.com explains:

“Respondents overwhelmingly agree that both buyers and sellers enjoy a smoother, more successful experience when they start early. In fact, a recent survey reveals that, for sellers, bringing a real estate agent into the process sooner can pay off significantly.”

A skilled agent can tell you:

  • What buyers in your local area are looking for
  • The repairs or updates you need to do before you list
  • How to prioritize the projects, if you can’t do them all
  • Skilled local contractors who can help you get the work done

And having that information up front is a game changer.

To give you a rough idea of what may come up in that conversation, here are the most common updates agents are recommending today, according to research from the National Association of Realtors (NAR):

Just remember, what’s worth updating really depends on the homes you’re competing with in your market. Some areas don’t have a ton of inventory, so little updates may be all you need to tackle. In other areas, there are far more homes for sale, so you may need to do a bit more to make your house stand out.

Your agent will walk you through what you need to do for your specific house and market. And that’s expertise that’ll really pay off. 

Bottom Line

If 2026 is your year to sell, the work starts now. Taking some time to prep means you’ll hit the market confident, ready, and ahead of other sellers who waited until January to get started.

Want to know which projects are getting the biggest return on their investment in your market? Connect with a local agent so you can head into next spring with a solid game plan.

Is the Housing Market Going To Crash? Here’s What Experts Say

Economy, For Buyers, For Sellers, Forecasts, Home Prices, Real Estate, , , , ,

Is the Housing Market Going To Crash? Here’s What Experts Say Simplifying The Market

If you’ve seen headlines or social posts calling for a housing crash, it’s easy to wonder if home values are about to take a hit. But here’s the simple truth.

The data doesn’t point to a crash. It points to slow, continued growth.

And sure, it’s going to vary by local area. Some markets will see prices rise more than others. And some may even see small, short-term declines. But the big picture is: home prices are expected to rise nationally, not fall, over the next 5 years.

The Real Story Is in the Expert Forecasts

In the Home Price Expectations Survey (HPES) from Fannie Mae, each quarter over 100 leading housing market experts weigh in on where they project home prices will go from here. And in the report that was just released, the experts agree prices are projected to climb nationally through at least 2029 (see graph below):

a graph of green squaresHere’s how to read this visual. Each bar in that graph shows an increase, not a loss. It’s just that the anticipated pace of that appreciation varies year-to-year.

And to further drive this home, let’s look at another view of where prices are and where they’re expected to go. In this version, the expert forecasts are broken into 3 categories: the overall average, the most optimistic projections, and the most pessimistic projections (see chart below):

a graph on a blue backgroundNotice how even the most pessimistic forecasters say we’ll see prices rise by almost 5% over the next few years.

  • Overall, prices are expected to rise about 15% from now through the end of 2029.
  • The optimists say we’ll beat that and see a roughly 26% increase.
  • And even the pessimists anticipate prices will go up by 5% during that period.

What sticks out the most? None of these groups who study the market are forecasting a crash, or even a decline, over the next 5 years.

How This Compares to “Normal” for the Market

Now, focus back on the first graph. The projections call for 2-3.5% price increases in each of the next five years. For context, the average rate of appreciation for the last 25 years was closer to 4-5% annually.

So, while that’s slightly below the historical average, it’s much more sustainable and typical than where the market was in 2020, 2021, and 2022.

Back then, prices rose too much, too fast based on record-low supply and record-high demand. Some places even saw prices climb by 15-20%.

So, while it may feel like prices are stalling compared to those pandemic-era surges, what’s really happening is that the market is finally finding balance again.

Why Prices Aren’t Expected To Crash

A lot of the chatter about home prices today is based on that rapid rise and the old saying that what goes up, must come down. But historically, that’s not really true. Home prices almost always rise.

And the main reason we’re not heading for a repeat of 2008 is simple: supply and demand.

Even though affordability challenges have made it harder for some people to buy over the past few years, there still aren’t enough homes for everyone who wants one. And that ongoing shortage is keeping upward pressure on prices nationally. 

That’s why experts across the board can confidently agree: we’re not headed for a price collapse, but for steady, long-term appreciation.

And just in case it’s the economy that’s got you worried, remember this. Over the past 50 years, there have been plenty of economic events that have impacted the market. And one thing that’s consistently been true throughout time is the housing market always recovers. And we’re coming through that turn right now and going into a recovery.

Bottom Line

If you’ve been waiting to buy or sell because you’re worried about a crash, it’s time to look at the data – not the headlines.

The question isn’t if home prices will rise, it’s by how much.

Connect with an agent who can show you what’s happening in your local market and what these forecasts mean for your next move.

The $280 Shift in Affordability Every Homebuyer Should Know

Affordability, Buying Tips, First-Time Buyers, For Sellers, Mortgage Rates, Move-Up, Real Estate, , , , ,

The $280 Shift in Affordability Every Homebuyer Should Know Simplifying The Market

If you paused your plans to move because of high rates or prices, it may finally be time to take a second look at your numbers. Affordability is improving in 39 of the top 50 markets, according to First American. And that’s the 5th straight month where buying a home has started to get a little bit easier.

Let’s break this down into real dollars, so you can see the difference this could make for you (and your move).

Monthly Payments Are Coming Down

One of the clearest signs of this shift is in monthly payments. The latest data from Redfin shows mortgage payments on a median-priced home are now $283 lower than they were just a few months ago (see graph below):

a graph of a graph of moneyThis kind of monthly savings adds up fast, and totals nearly $3,400 over the course of a year.

While this isn’t enough to completely change the affordability game overnight, think about it this way. When you’re putting together a homebuying budget, a few hundred dollars could be the difference between being comfortable buying and feeling like money’s a bit tight.

And from a home-search perspective, it could even be enough to change the price point you can look at. According to Redfin:

“A borrower with a $3,000 monthly budget can now afford a $468,000 home, about $22,000 more than in June.”

And that’s a big deal if you haven’t found a home you love in your price range yet. It gives you a little more flexibility to find the one that’s right for you.

Either way, that’s a big win.

What’s Behind the Shift?

Two key factors are working in your favor right now:

  • Mortgage rates have eased from their high earlier this year
  • Home price growth is slowing in many markets

Both of those things help your bottom line and give you a bit of breathing room if you’re buying a home. As Andy Walden, Head of Mortgage and Housing Market Research at ICE Mortgage Technology, says:

“The recent pullback in rates has created a tailwind for both homebuyers and existing borrowers. We’re seeing affordability at a 2.5-year high . . .”

Whether you’re a first-time homebuyer or someone looking to move-up into a bigger house, the shifts happening this year could make your move possible. Connect with a trusted agent or lender to see what your monthly payment would look like at today’s rates.

For you, the savings could be the difference between “not yet” and “let’s go.”

Bottom Line

Affordability is improving in many markets. And that resets the math on your move.

If you’ve been sitting on the sidelines, this is your cue to start looking again. Connect with a local agent or trusted lender to run the numbers together so you can get a rough estimate of how much more buying power you may have than you did just a few months ago.

2026 Housing Market Outlook

For Buyers, For Sellers, Forecasts, Home Prices, Mortgage Rates, Real Estate, , , , ,

2026 Housing Market Outlook Simplifying The Market

After a couple of years where the housing market felt stuck in neutral, 2026 may be the year things shift back into gear. Expert forecasts show more people are expected to move – and that could open the door for you to do the same.

More Homes Will Sell

With all of the affordability challenges at play over the past few years, many would-be movers pressed pause. But that pause button isn’t going to last forever. There are always people who need to move. And experts think more of them will start to act in 2026 (see graph below):

a graph of a graph showing the number of the company's salesWhat’s behind the change? Two key factors: mortgage rates and home prices. Let’s dive into the latest expert forecasts for both, so you can see why more people are expected to move next year.

Mortgage Rates Could Continue To Ease

The #1 thing just about every buyer has been looking for is lower mortgage rates. And after peaking near 7% earlier this year, rates have started to ease.

The latest forecasts show that could continue throughout 2026, but it won’t be a straight line down (see graph below):

a graph with numbers and linesThere’s a saying: when rates go up, they take the escalator. But when they come down, they take the stairs. And that’s an important thing to remember. It’ll be a slow and bumpy process.

Expect modest improvement in mortgage rates over the next year but be ready for some volatility. There will be volatility along the way as new economic data comes out. Just don’t let it distract you from the bigger picture: the overall trend will be a slight decline. Forecasts say we could hit the low 6s, or maybe even the high 5s.

And remember, there doesn’t have to be a big drop for you to feel a change. Even a smaller dip helps your bottom line.

If you compare where rates are now to when they were at 7% earlier this year, you’re already saving hundreds on your future mortgage payment. And that’s a really good thing. It’s enough to make a real difference in affordability for some buyers.

Home Price Growth Will Be Moderate

What about prices? On a national scale, forecasts say they’re still going to rise, just not by a lot. With rates down from their peak earlier this year, more buyers will re-enter the market. And that increased demand will keep some upward pressure on prices nationally – and prevent prices from tumbling down.

So, even though some markets are already seeing slight price declines, you can rest easy that a big crash just isn’t in the cards. Thanks to how much prices rose over the last 5 years, even the markets seeing declines right now are still up compared to just a few years ago.

Of course, price trends will depend on where you are and what’s happening in your local market. Inventory is a big driver in why some places are going to see varying levels of appreciation going forward. But experts agree we’ll see prices grow at the national level (see graph below): 

a graph of green rectangular objectsThis is yet another good sign for buyers and overall affordability. While prices will still go up nationally, it’ll be at a much more sustainable pace. And that predictability makes it easier to plan your budget. It also gives you peace of mind that prices won’t suddenly skyrocket overnight.

Bottom Line

After a quieter couple of years, 2026 is expected to bring more movement – and more opportunity. With sales projected to rise, mortgage rates trending lower, and price growth slowing down, the stage is set for a healthier, more active market.

So, the big question: will you be one of the movers making 2026 your year?

Connect with an agent if you want to get ready.

Don’t Let Unrealistic Pricing Cost You Your Move

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Don’t Let Unrealistic Pricing Cost You Your Move Simplifying The Market

These days, you’re going to want to get your price right when you get ready to sell your house. Honestly, it’s more important than ever. Why? While you may want to list high just to see what happens, that’s a plan that can easily backfire, and it’s going to cost you in today’s market.

And the risk isn’t just missing out on offers, it’s missing out on the move you needed to make in the first place.

The Real Pitfall of Overpricing

Many homeowners remember what their neighbor’s house sold for a few years ago, and they want to chase that same sky-high number. The problem is, that was a different market.

Today, there are more homes for sale. Buyers have more options to choose from. They don’t have to get into bidding wars where they offer way over asking just to compete. Now they can come in at, or even below, list price. And if you’re not open to that, they’ll move on. Lisa Sturtevant, Chief Economist at Bright MLS, explains:

“Buyers will have more leverage in many, but not all, markets. Sellers will need to adjust price expectations to reflect the transitioning market.”

But here’s the good news. You still have one big advantage as a seller. According to the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA), home values went up by a staggering 54% over the last 5 years. So, even if you compromise just a little bit on your sale price today, odds are you’ll still come out way ahead.

The challenge? Most sellers aren’t thinking about it that way. They’re stuck on what a neighbor got months or years ago – and that’s a costly mistake.

Overpricing Can Stall Your Whole Move

Here’s what happens. A seller lists too high. Buyers stay away. No offers come in. The house sits. And suddenly, that seller is facing a tough decision. Do they cut the price? Stick it out? Or give up altogether?

Unfortunately, a late price cut may not be enough. Buyers often see that as a red flag that something’s wrong with the house. That’s why some sellers are opting to just pull their listing off the market entirely.

In a recent survey from John Burns Research and Consulting (JBREC) and Keeping Current Matters (KCM) over half of agents (54%) say there are more homes being taken off the market than usual.

a graph of a number of blue squaresAnd the top reasons for that? According to the agents, homeowners didn’t get any offers they felt were fair. The survey from JBREC and KCM explains it like this:

“Sellers holding onto high price expectations is the leading reason they are delisting their homes.”

BrightMLS data backs this up:

“. . . sellers are delisting after having their home on the market and finding they are not getting the price they hoped for.”

It’s more proof pricing too high does more than turn buyers away, it puts your whole move at risk. Because if no one looks at your home or makes an offer, how are you going to sell it?

The Secret To Making Your Move Happen

If you’re selling to relocate for a job, need more space for your growing family, or have to be closer to your relatives as they age, you can’t afford to get stuck. You need a pricing strategy that helps you move forward – and that starts with the right agent.

The sellers who are winning right now are the ones working with experienced local agents who know the current market and aren’t afraid to have honest conversations about price.

And it’s paying off. In the right price range and condition, homes are still selling fast, sometimes even with multiple offers.

Bottom Line

Pricing your house for today’s market isn’t just about getting it sold. It’s about making sure your move doesn’t stall before it starts.

Talk to an agent about what buyers are really paying right now in your area, and how to price your home to match.

Why Home Prices Aren’t Actually Flat

For Buyers, For Sellers, Home Prices, Real Estate, , , , ,

Why Home Prices Aren’t Actually Flat Simplifying The Market

If you’ve been following real estate news lately, you’ve probably seen headlines saying home prices are flat. And at first glance, that sounds simple enough. But here’s the thing. The reality isn’t quite that straightforward.

In most places, prices aren’t flat at all.

What the Data Really Shows

While we’ve definitely seen prices moderate from the rapid and unsustainable climb in 2020-2022, how much they’ve changed is going to be different everywhere.

If you look at data from ResiClub and Zillow for the 50 largest metros, this becomes very clear. The real story is split right down the middle. Half of the metros are still seeing prices inch higher. The other half? Prices are coming down slightly (see graph below).

a graph of prices on a dark backgroundThe big takeaway here is “flat” doesn’t mean prices are holding steady everywhere. What the numbers actually show is how much price trends are going to vary depending on where you are.

One factor that’s driving the divide? Inventory. The Joint Center for Housing Studies (JCHS) of Harvard University explains:

“ . . . price trends are beginning to diverge in markets across the country. Prices are declining in a growing number of markets where inventories have soared while they continue to climb in markets where for-sale inventories remain tight.”

When you average those very different trends together, you get a number that looks like it’s flat. But it doesn’t give you the real story and it’s not what most markets are feeling today. You deserve more than that.

And just in case you’re really focusing on the declines, remember those are primarily places where prices rose too much, too fast just a few years ago. Prices went up roughly 50% nationally over the past 5 years, and even more than that in some of the markets that are experiencing a bigger correction today. So, a modest drop in some local pockets still puts most of those homeowners ahead when it comes to the overall value of their home. And based on the fundamentals of today’s housing market, experts are not projecting a national decline going forward.

So, what’s actually important for you to know?

If You’re Buying…

You need to know what’s happening in your area because that’s going to influence everything from how quickly you need to make an offer to how much negotiating power you’ll have once you do.

  • In a market where prices are still inching up, waiting around could mean paying more down the line.
  • In a market where they’re easing, you may be able to ask for things like repairs or closing cost help to sweeten the deal.

The bottom line? Knowing your local trend puts you in the driver’s seat. 

If You’re Selling…

You’ll want to be aware of local trends, so you’ll know how to price your house and how much you can expect to negotiate.

  • In a market where prices are still rising, you may not need to make many compromises to get your home sold.
  • But if you’re in a market where prices are coming down, setting the right price from the start and being willing to negotiate becomes much more important.

The big action item for homeowners? Sellers need to have an agent’s local perspective if they want to avoid making the wrong call on pricing – and homes that are priced right are definitely selling.

The Real Story Is Local

The national averages can point to broad trends, and that’s helpful context. But sometimes you’re going to need a local point of view because what’s happening in your zip code could look different. As Anthony Smith, Senior Economist at Realtor.com, article puts it:

“While national prices continued to climb, local market conditions have become increasingly fragmented…This regional divide is expected to continue influencing price dynamics and sales activity as the fall season gets underway.”

That’s why the smartest move, whether you’re buying or selling, is to lean on a local agent who’s an expert on your market.

They’ll have the data and the experience to tell you whether prices in your area are holding steady, moving up, or softening a bit – and how that could impact your move.

Bottom Line

Headlines calling home prices flat may be grabbing attention, but they’re not giving you the full picture.

Has anyone taken the time to walk you through what’s happening in your market?

If you want the real story about what prices are doing in your area, connect with a local agent.

Why Experts Say Mortgage Rates Should Ease Over the Next Year

Affordability, Economy, First-Time Buyers, For Buyers, For Sellers, Mortgage Rates, Real Estate, , , , ,

Why Experts Say Mortgage Rates Should Ease Over the Next Year Simplifying The Market

You want mortgage rates to fall – and they’ve started to. But is it going to last? And how low will they go?

Experts say there’s room for rates to come down even more over the next year. And one of the leading indicators to watch is the 10-year treasury yield. Here’s why.

The Link Between Mortgage Rates and the 10-Year Treasury Yield

For over 50 years, the 30-year fixed mortgage rate has closely followed the movement of the 10-year treasury yield, which is a widely watched benchmark for long-term interest rates (see graph below):

a graph of a graph showing the rise of a mortgage rateWhen the treasury yield climbs, mortgage rates tend to follow. And when the yield falls, mortgage rates typically come down.

It’s been a predictable pattern for over 50 years. So predictable, that there’s a number experts consider normal for the gap between the two. It’s known as the spread, and it usually averages about 1.76 percentage points, or what you sometimes hear as 176 basis points.

The Spread Is Shrinking

Over the past couple of years, though, that spread has been much wider than normal. Why? Think of the spread as a measure of fear in the market. When there’s lingering uncertainty in the economy, the gap widens beyond its usual norm. That’s one of the reasons why mortgage rates have been unusually high over the past few years.

But here’s a sign for optimism. Even though there’s still some lingering uncertainty related to the economy, that spread is starting to shrink as the path forward is becoming clearer (see graph below):

a graph of a chartAnd that opens the door for mortgage rates to come down even more. As a recent article from Redfin explains:

“A lower mortgage spread equals lower mortgage rates. If the spread continues to decline, mortgage rates could fall more than they already have.”

The 10-Year Treasury Yield Is Expected To Decline

It’s not just the spread, though. The 10-year treasury yield itself is also forecast to come down in the months ahead. So, when you combine a lower yield with a narrowing spread, you have two key forces potentially pushing mortgage rates down going into next year.

This long-term relationship is a big reason why you see experts currently projecting mortgage rates will ease, with a fringe possibility they’ll hit the upper 5s toward the end of next year.

Here’s how it works. Take the 10-year treasury yield, which is sitting at about 4.09% at the time this article is being written, and then add the average spread of 1.76%. From there, you’d expect mortgage rates to be around 5.85% (see graph below):

a graph of a chartBut remember, all of that can change as the economy shifts. And know for certain that there will be ups and downs along the way. 

How these dynamics play out will depend on where the economy, the job market, inflation, and more go from here. But the 2026 outlook is currently expected to be a gradual mortgage rate decline. And as of now, things are starting to move in the right direction.

Bottom Line

Keeping up with all of these shifts can feel overwhelming. That’s why having an experienced agent or lender on your side matters. They’ll do the heavy lifting for you.

If you want real-time updates on mortgage rates, reach out to a trusted agent or lender who can keep you in the loop and help you plan your next move.

Downsizing Without Debt: How More Homeowners Are Buying Their Next House in Cash

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Downsizing Without Debt: How More Homeowners Are Buying Their Next House in Cash Simplifying The Market

If you’ve been thinking about downsizing to lower your expenses, be closer to family, or just make life easier, here’s a trend worth paying attention to:

More homeowners are buying their next house outright, without taking on a new mortgage. And, if you’ve owned your home for a while, you may be able to do the same. No mortgage. No monthly housing payments.

A Record Share of Homeowners Are Mortgage-Free

According to analysis from ResiClub of Census data, more than 40% of U.S. owner-occupied homes are mortgage-free – an all-time high for this data series. That means 4 in 10 homeowners own their homes free and clear (see graph below):

a graph of a number of blue barsOne big reason for this trend? Demographics. As Baby Boomers age and stay in their homes longer, many have had the time to fully pay off their mortgages. You might be in that group too and not even realize just how much buying power you now have. It’s time to change that.

How Downsizers Are Turning Equity into Buying Power

As a homeowner, your equity is your biggest advantage in today’s market. If you’re mortgage-free (or close to it), it could give you the power to buy your next home in cash. That means you’d still have no mortgage payment in retirement, plus:

  • Less financial stress as you age
  • More cash flow, if you purchase a less expensive home
  • And it would likely be a faster, simpler transaction

Here’s how it works. You’d sell your current house and use the proceeds to buy your next house in cash. And while that may sound like something you thought would never be possible for you, it’s more realistic than you may think.

In the latest survey from John Burns Research and Consulting (JBREC) and Keeping Current Matters (KCM), agents reported the share of purchases with all-cash buyers is climbing nationally. And those agents are seeing increases in almost every region of the country (see graph below):

a graph of salesFor Baby Boomers especially, buying in cash gives you more control over your next chapter. You could buy a smaller, less expensive home and have lower costs, less upkeep, and more flexibility to enjoy what matters most. All while staying debt and stress free.

Because downsizing isn’t about downgrading your home. It’s about upgrading your quality of life. And that’s something worth exploring.

Bottom Line

You’ve worked hard for your house. Now it might be time for it to work hard for you.

Talk to your agent about what your house is worth, and what it could unlock for you today. What would your ideal home look like if you were to downsize right now?